November 9, 2024
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 193 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos's 15-fight experience advantage (16 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos for the expected result. Had Zachary Scroggin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 113 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:15 | 1:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 331 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -13 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 35 | 8 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 221 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos edged the striking exchanges with 11 vs 3 significant strikes. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 230 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos controlled Zachary Scroggin on the ground with 0:20 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 195 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -11 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Zachary Scroggin's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 180 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -12 |
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Zachary Scroggin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Zachary Scroggin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 113 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.