Elves Brener vs Joel Alvarez

August 2, 2024

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1040
(-30)
Elves Brener
Winner: Joel Alvarez
KO/TKO
Round 3 • 3:36

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Elves Brener-30
Joel Alvarez+33
1165
(+33)
Joel Alvarez

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -28Joel Alvarez: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Total UFC Fights58
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 0811 181
ELO Change-28+28
💡

What Happened

Joel Alvarez's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joel Alvarez for the expected result. Had Elves Brener pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -20Joel Alvarez: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0191 082
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -23Joel Alvarez: +46

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round33
Time of Finish3:363:36
Win Type ELO1 0911 331
ELO Change-23+46
💡

What Happened

Joel Alvarez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -95Joel Alvarez: +95

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Significant Strikes Landed4595
Significant Strikes Attempted97141
Total Strikes Landed45114
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 0111 239
ELO Change-95+95
💡

What Happened

Joel Alvarez dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 45 total strikes, 95 vs 45 significant strikes, 67.4% vs 46.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joel Alvarez capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -15Joel Alvarez: +15

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted51
Ground Control Time0:220:51
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 0141 159
ELO Change-15+15
💡

What Happened

Joel Alvarez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Elves Brener on the ground with 0:51 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -18Joel Alvarez: +16

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Days Since Last Fight91378
Activity ELO1 0561 137
ELO Change-18+16
💡

What Happened

Joel Alvarez demonstrated extended layoff with 378 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Joel Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Elves Brener's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -19Joel Alvarez: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 0321 110
ELO Change-19+23
💡

What Happened

Joel Alvarez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Elves Brener is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Elves Brener: -20Joel Alvarez: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricElves BrenerJoel Alvarez
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0191 082
ELO Change-20+20
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.