August 2, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 081 | 1 181 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Joel Alvarez's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joel Alvarez for the expected result. Had Elves Brener pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +46 |
Joel Alvarez gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 95 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 97 | 141 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 114 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 011 | 1 239 |
| ELO Change | -95 | +95 |
Joel Alvarez dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 45 total strikes, 95 vs 45 significant strikes, 67.4% vs 46.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joel Alvarez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:22 | 0:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 014 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Joel Alvarez did not secure a significant ground advantage against Elves Brener on the ground with 0:51 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 378 |
| Activity ELO | 1 056 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +16 |
Joel Alvarez demonstrated extended layoff with 378 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Joel Alvarez capitalized on this activity level, while Elves Brener's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Joel Alvarez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Elves Brener is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Elves Brener | Joel Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

