December 9, 2015
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 946 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 957 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:13 | 4:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 911 | 989 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +73 |
Kailin Curran earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:13, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Emily Kagan was submitted.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 22 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 49 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 901 | 926 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Emily Kagan controlled the striking through superior volume (49 vs 32 total strikes), superior accuracy (27.5% vs 42.9%). However, since Emily Kagan lost the overall fight, her striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Kailin Curran's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:37 | 1:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 901 | 929 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
Kailin Curran controlled Emily Kagan on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:14 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 363 | 216 |
| Activity ELO | 957 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +28 |
Kailin Curran demonstrated standard activity with 216 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kailin Curran capitalized on this activity level, while Emily Kagan's 363-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 957 | 982 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Kailin Curran started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Emily Kagan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Emily Kagan | Kailin Curran |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 957 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

