November 9, 2018
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Eric Shelton's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Eric Shelton for the expected result. Had Joseph Morales pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 986 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 997 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Eric Shelton receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 57 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 45 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 059 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Joseph Morales controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 45 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (24 vs 16). However, since Joseph Morales lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Eric Shelton's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:46 | 0:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 057 | 906 |
| ELO Change | +75 | -75 |
Eric Shelton controlled Joseph Morales on the ground with 7 vs 1 takedowns, 6:46 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 259 | 280 |
| Activity ELO | 1 023 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Eric Shelton demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Eric Shelton capitalized on this activity level, while Joseph Morales's 280-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 992 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Eric Shelton started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joseph Morales is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eric Shelton | Joseph Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.