July 12, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Sam Alvey's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sam Alvey for the expected result. Had Eric Spicely pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:43 | 2:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 978 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +38 |
Sam Alvey earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:43, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 15 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 8 | 13 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 979 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Sam Alvey slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 53.3% vs 77.8% accuracy. Sam Alvey capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:14 | 0:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Sam Alvey edged out Eric Spicely on the ground with 0:20 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 25 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +98 |
Sam Alvey demonstrated exceptional activity with 25 days since his last fight, earning a high activity bonus for the rapid turnaround. As the winner, Sam Alvey capitalized on this activity level, while Eric Spicely's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Sam Alvey started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eric Spicely is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Sam Alvey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.