September 23, 2016
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 036 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -44 |
Eric Spicely overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Thiago Santos.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:58 | 2:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 106 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | +128 | -73 |
Eric Spicely earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 9 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 044 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
Eric Spicely slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 62.5% vs 22.2% accuracy. Eric Spicely capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:22 | 1:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 077 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +111 | -111 |
Eric Spicely controlled Thiago Santos on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:22 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 73 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 073 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +87 | -29 |
Eric Spicely demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 73 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Eric Spicely capitalized on this activity level, while Thiago Santos's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -27 |
Eric Spicely started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Thiago Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eric Spicely | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.