October 15, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 38 |
| Experience Gap | -37 | 37 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Jim Miller's 37-fight experience advantage (38 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Erick Gonzalez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:14 | 0:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 260 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +37 |
Jim Miller gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 37 | 48 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 910 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -90 | +90 |
Jim Miller controlled the striking exchanges with 43 vs 22 total strikes, 32 vs 14 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 37.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:02 | 1:55 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 956 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
Jim Miller landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +9 |
Jim Miller demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Erick Gonzalez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Jim Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Erick Gonzalez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

