August 5, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 952 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Terrance McKinney's 2-fight experience advantage (4 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Terrance McKinney for the expected result. Had Erick Gonzalez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 963 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:17 | 2:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 961 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +36 |
Terrance McKinney earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 37 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 23 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 890 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Terrance McKinney edged the striking exchanges with 18 vs 9 significant strikes. Terrance McKinney capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 888 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Terrance McKinney dominated Erick Gonzalez on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:52 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 294 | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 974 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +37 |
Terrance McKinney demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Terrance McKinney capitalized on this activity level, while Erick Gonzalez's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 966 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Terrance McKinney started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Erick Gonzalez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erick Gonzalez | Terrance McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.