September 16, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 991 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:18 | 0:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 968 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +64 |
Randy Brown earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:18, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Erick Montano was submitted.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 60 | 18 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 014 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Erick Montano controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (60 vs 18 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (21 vs 12), superior accuracy (51.2% vs 40.0%). However, since Erick Montano lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Randy Brown's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:14 | 2:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 991 |
| ELO Change | -77 | +77 |
Randy Brown controlled Erick Montano on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:22 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 301 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +39 |
Randy Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Randy Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Erick Montano's 301-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Randy Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Erick Montano is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erick Montano | Randy Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

