October 12, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 994 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
Jon Fitch's 13-fight experience advantage (17 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jon Fitch for the expected result. Had Erick Silva pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 011 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 125 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Jon Fitch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 131 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 176 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 066 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Jon Fitch dominated the striking exchanges with 176 vs 24 total strikes, 82 vs 19 significant strikes. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:57 | 8:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 61 |
| Ground ELO | 1 070 | 1 470 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Jon Fitch dominated Erick Silva on the ground with 6 vs 2 takedowns, 8:48 of control time, 61 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 127 | 288 |
| Activity ELO | 1 050 | 1 356 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated standard activity with 288 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Erick Silva's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 020 | 1 288 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +9 |
Jon Fitch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Erick Silva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 011 | 1 194 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.