September 23, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Erick Silva's 11-fight experience advantage (13 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Erick Silva for the expected result. Had Luan Chagas pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 039 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:57 | 3:57 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 254 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -18 |
Erick Silva earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:57, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Luan Chagas was submitted.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 116 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 44 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 084 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +61 | -61 |
Erick Silva controlled the striking exchanges with 55 vs 41 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Erick Silva capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:10 | 2:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 129 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -50 |
Erick Silva controlled Luan Chagas on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:10 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 203 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 151 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -14 |
Erick Silva demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Erick Silva capitalized on this activity level, while Luan Chagas's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 065 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Erick Silva started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luan Chagas is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erick Silva | Luan Chagas |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 038 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.