July 26, 2019
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 017 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Erik Koch's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Erik Koch for the expected result. Had Kyle Stewart pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 002 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Erik Koch earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 64 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 67 | 68 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 966 | 903 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Erik Koch edged the striking exchanges with 37 vs 23 significant strikes, 58.7% vs 35.9% accuracy. Erik Koch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 9:00 | 2:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 792 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Erik Koch dominated Kyle Stewart on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 9:00 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 546 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -19 |
Erik Koch demonstrated extended layoff with 546 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Erik Koch capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Stewart's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 016 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Erik Koch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Stewart is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 002 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.