February 21, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -28 |
Erik Koch overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (5 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Rafaello Oliveira.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:24 | 1:24 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 134 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -31 |
Erik Koch earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:24, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 6 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 1 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 108 | 774 |
| ELO Change | +135 | -135 |
Erik Koch controlled the striking exchanges with 19 vs 1 significant strikes, 70.4% vs 16.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Erik Koch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 007 | 943 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Erik Koch controlled Rafaello Oliveira on the ground with 0:24 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 176 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 1 047 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -20 |
Erik Koch demonstrated solid activity levels with 176 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Erik Koch capitalized on this activity level, while Rafaello Oliveira's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Erik Koch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafaello Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Rafaello Oliveira |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.