May 28, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 032 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Erik Koch's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Erik Koch for the expected result. Had Shane Campbell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:02 | 3:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +50 | -32 |
Erik Koch earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Shane Campbell was submitted.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 22 | 34 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 023 | 929 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Shane Campbell controlled the striking through superior accuracy (61.5% vs 35.0%). However, since Shane Campbell lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Erik Koch's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:16 | 1:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 110 | 830 |
| ELO Change | +160 | -160 |
Erik Koch dominated Shane Campbell on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 4:16 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 750 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 048 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Erik Koch demonstrated extended layoff with 750 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Erik Koch capitalized on this activity level, while Shane Campbell's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 032 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Erik Koch started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shane Campbell is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erik Koch | Shane Campbell |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 964 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.