December 9, 2022
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 966 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
TJ Brown's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding TJ Brown for the expected result. Had Erik Silva pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:41 | 3:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 951 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +74 |
TJ Brown earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 3:41, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Erik Silva was submitted.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 38 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 958 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
TJ Brown dominated the striking exchanges with 82 vs 32 total strikes, 63.2% vs 72.4% accuracy. TJ Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:35 | 9:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 829 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -171 | +171 |
TJ Brown dominated Erik Silva on the ground with 2 takedowns, 9:43 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 979 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +37 |
TJ Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Erik Silva's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
TJ Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Erik Silva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Erik Silva | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

