January 11, 2025
Women's Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 970 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ernesta Kareckaite receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 95 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 226 | 166 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 126 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Ernesta Kareckaite controlled the striking exchanges with 126 vs 86 total strikes, 95 vs 67 significant strikes. Ernesta Kareckaite capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 14 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:33 | 3:34 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 988 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Ernesta Kareckaite did not secure a significant ground advantage against Nicolle Caliari on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:33 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 253 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Ernesta Kareckaite demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ernesta Kareckaite capitalized on this activity level, while Nicolle Caliari's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 003 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Ernesta Kareckaite started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nicolle Caliari is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Ernesta Kareckaite | Nicolle Caliari |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Flyweight | Women's Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.