February 2, 2018
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -20 | 20 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Lyoto Machida's 20-fight experience advantage (23 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Lyoto Machida for the expected result. Had Eryk Anders pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 029 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 152 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | -4 | +4 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Lyoto Machida receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 62 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 77 | 112 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 121 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
Lyoto Machida controlled the striking exchanges with 66 vs 46 total strikes, 62 vs 32 significant strikes, 55.4% vs 41.6% accuracy. Lyoto Machida capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:47 | 2:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 113 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Lyoto Machida did not secure a significant ground advantage against Eryk Anders on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:17 of control time, 7 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 56 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 060 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +22 |
Lyoto Machida demonstrated solid activity levels with 99 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Lyoto Machida capitalized on this activity level, while Eryk Anders's 56-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 038 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +15 |
Lyoto Machida started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eryk Anders is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Lyoto Machida |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.