September 21, 2018
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 102 | 1 197 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Thiago Santos's 11-fight experience advantage (16 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Santos for the expected result. Had Eryk Anders pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 029 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 173 | 1 427 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +42 |
Thiago Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 100 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 152 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 115 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 133 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Thiago Santos dominated the striking exchanges with 115 vs 34 total strikes, 100 vs 32 significant strikes, 65.8% vs 47.8% accuracy. Thiago Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 6 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:53 | 1:52 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 104 | 1 238 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Thiago Santos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Eryk Anders on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:52 of control time, 13 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 28 | 49 |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 1 300 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +60 |
Thiago Santos demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 49 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Thiago Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Eryk Anders's 28-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 040 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +20 |
Thiago Santos extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Eryk Anders is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Eryk Anders | Thiago Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.