March 1, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 14 |
| Experience Gap | -9 | 9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 082 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Nasrat Haqparast's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Nasrat Haqparast for the expected result. Had Esteban Ribovics pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 028 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 183 | 1 315 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Nasrat Haqparast receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 147 | 135 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 433 | 273 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 149 | 135 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 156 | 1 302 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Esteban Ribovics controlled the striking through significant strike advantage (147 vs 135), superior accuracy (33.9% vs 49.5%). However, since Esteban Ribovics lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Nasrat Haqparast's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:49 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 002 | 1 208 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Nasrat Haqparast did not secure a significant ground advantage against Esteban Ribovics on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:49 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 085 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +19 |
Nasrat Haqparast demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Nasrat Haqparast capitalized on this activity level, while Esteban Ribovics's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 045 | 1 172 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Nasrat Haqparast continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Esteban Ribovics's now at 0.
| Metric | Esteban Ribovics | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 028 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

