May 24, 2013
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Jeremy Stephens's 15-fight experience advantage (16 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jeremy Stephens for the expected result. Had Estevan Payan pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 974 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Jeremy Stephens earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 49 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 94 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 46 | 82 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 973 | 1 133 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Jeremy Stephens controlled the striking exchanges with 82 vs 46 total strikes, 49 vs 25 significant strikes, 55.7% vs 26.6% accuracy. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:17 | 9:06 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 891 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -109 | +109 |
Jeremy Stephens dominated Estevan Payan on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 9:06 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +25 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Estevan Payan's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Estevan Payan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Estevan Payan | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.