September 21, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 137 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +33 |
Francisco Trinaldo overcame a 2-fight experience disadvantage (18 vs 20 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Evan Dunham.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:10 | 4:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 184 | 1 365 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +66 |
Francisco Trinaldo gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 25 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 004 | 1 257 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Francisco Trinaldo controlled the striking exchanges with 40.6% vs 29.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:32 | 0:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Francisco Trinaldo landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 216 |
| Activity ELO | 1 220 | 1 335 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Francisco Trinaldo demonstrated standard activity with 216 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Francisco Trinaldo capitalized on this activity level, while Evan Dunham's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 110 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +18 |
Francisco Trinaldo started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Evan Dunham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Francisco Trinaldo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.