February 1, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 181 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -32 |
Evan Dunham overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 18 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gleison Tibau.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 085 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 168 | 1 219 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Evan Dunham receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 91 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 237 | 169 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 184 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +62 | -62 |
Evan Dunham dominated the striking exchanges with 98 vs 37 total strikes, 91 vs 37 significant strikes, 38.4% vs 21.9% accuracy. Evan Dunham capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:32 | 1:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 257 | 1 314 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Evan Dunham did not secure a significant ground advantage against Gleison Tibau on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:32 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 113 |
| Activity ELO | 1 204 | 1 249 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -29 |
Evan Dunham demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Evan Dunham capitalized on this activity level, while Gleison Tibau's 113-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 113 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Evan Dunham started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gleison Tibau is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Gleison Tibau |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 084 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

