August 28, 2009
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 096 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -23 |
Evan Dunham overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Marcus Aurelio.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 040 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 109 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Evan Dunham receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 58 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 161 | 102 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 70 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 145 | 987 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Evan Dunham controlled the striking exchanges with 58 vs 27 significant strikes, 36.0% vs 26.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Evan Dunham capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 15 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:01 | 4:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 054 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Evan Dunham landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 308 |
| Activity ELO | 1 049 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Evan Dunham demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Evan Dunham capitalized on this activity level, while Marcus Aurelio's 308-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 970 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Evan Dunham extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcus Aurelio is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Marcus Aurelio |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 040 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.