May 17, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 145 | 1 169 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (11 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 064 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 145 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 68 | 66 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 270 | 183 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 167 | 1 266 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Evan Dunham controlled the striking through superior accuracy (25.2% vs 36.1%). However, since Evan Dunham lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafael Dos Anjos's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:40 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 241 | 1 366 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Rafael Dos Anjos did not secure a significant ground advantage against Evan Dunham on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:42 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 289 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +21 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated standard activity with 182 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Evan Dunham's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 092 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +30 |
Rafael Dos Anjos extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Evan Dunham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

