January 2, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 112 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Evan Dunham's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Evan Dunham for the expected result. Had Rodrigo Damm pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 045 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 126 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Evan Dunham earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 152 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 344 | 153 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 156 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 876 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Evan Dunham dominated the striking exchanges with 156 vs 47 total strikes, 152 vs 47 significant strikes, 44.2% vs 30.7% accuracy. Evan Dunham capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:34 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 119 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Evan Dunham did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rodrigo Damm on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:34 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 172 | 121 |
| Activity ELO | 1 175 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -13 |
Evan Dunham demonstrated solid activity levels with 172 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Evan Dunham capitalized on this activity level, while Rodrigo Damm's 121-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 074 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Evan Dunham started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rodrigo Damm is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Rodrigo Damm |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 044 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.