September 24, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Sean Sherk's 7-fight experience advantage (12 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Sean Sherk for the expected result. Had Evan Dunham pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 185 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Sean Sherk receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 75 | 38 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 164 | 115 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 123 | 81 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 175 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Evan Dunham controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (123 vs 81 total strikes), significant strike advantage (75 vs 38), superior accuracy (45.7% vs 33.0%). However, since Evan Dunham lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Sean Sherk's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 18 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:34 | 8:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 211 | 1 417 |
| ELO Change | -97 | +97 |
Sean Sherk dominated Evan Dunham on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 8:10 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 490 |
| Activity ELO | 1 119 | 1 163 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
Sean Sherk demonstrated extended layoff with 490 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Sean Sherk capitalized on this activity level, while Evan Dunham's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 085 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Sean Sherk started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Evan Dunham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Sean Sherk |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.