September 16, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 124 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Evan Dunham's 5-fight experience advantage (7 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Evan Dunham for the expected result. Had Shamar Bailey pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 065 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 176 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Evan Dunham earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 92 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 351 | 206 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 94 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 110 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Evan Dunham dominated the striking exchanges with 94 vs 35 total strikes, 92 vs 35 significant strikes, 26.2% vs 17.0% accuracy. Evan Dunham capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 187 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 105 |
| Activity ELO | 1 123 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -16 |
Evan Dunham demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Evan Dunham capitalized on this activity level, while Shamar Bailey's 105-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 085 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Evan Dunham started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Shamar Bailey is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | Shamar Bailey |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 063 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.