September 21, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +36 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (9 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 062 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 155 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -44 | +44 |
TJ Grant earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 160 | 164 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 377 | 300 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 183 | 171 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 122 | 1 140 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Evan Dunham controlled the striking through superior accuracy (42.4% vs 54.7%). However, since Evan Dunham lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. TJ Grant's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 8 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:48 | 0:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 229 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
TJ Grant did not secure a significant ground advantage against Evan Dunham on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:40 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 238 | 130 |
| Activity ELO | 1 147 | 1 139 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +52 |
TJ Grant demonstrated solid activity levels with 130 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, TJ Grant capitalized on this activity level, while Evan Dunham's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 087 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +32 |
TJ Grant extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Evan Dunham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Dunham | TJ Grant |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 061 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

