July 14, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 942 | 912 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -23 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 974 | 877 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Evan Elder earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 96 | 64 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 195 | 236 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 96 | 65 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 948 | 637 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Evan Elder controlled the striking exchanges with 96 vs 65 total strikes, 96 vs 64 significant strikes, 49.2% vs 27.1% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Evan Elder capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 909 | 853 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 1 000 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Evan Elder demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Evan Elder capitalized on this activity level, while Genaro Valdez's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Evan Elder started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Genaro Valdez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Elder | Genaro Valdez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

