April 14, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 102 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Evan Tanner's 14-fight experience advantage (15 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Evan Tanner for the expected result. Had Justin Levens pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 128 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:14 | 3:14 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 340 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -11 |
Evan Tanner earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:14, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 6 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 272 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Evan Tanner edged the striking exchanges with 10 vs 2 significant strikes, 58.8% vs 50.0% accuracy. Evan Tanner capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:12 | 0:19 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 314 | 956 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Evan Tanner dominated Justin Levens on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:12 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 194 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 206 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -10 |
Evan Tanner demonstrated standard activity with 194 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Evan Tanner capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Levens's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 130 | 986 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -14 |
Evan Tanner started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Levens is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Justin Levens |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 101 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.