November 20, 2003
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Evan Tanner's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Evan Tanner for the expected result. Had Phil Baroni pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 088 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:42 | 4:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 271 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -39 |
Evan Tanner earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 32 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 40 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 119 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -90 |
Evan Tanner edged the striking exchanges with 28 vs 17 significant strikes, 82.4% vs 53.1% accuracy. Evan Tanner capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:27 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 246 | 994 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Evan Tanner controlled Phil Baroni on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:27 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 266 |
| Activity ELO | 1 179 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Evan Tanner demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Evan Tanner capitalized on this activity level, while Phil Baroni's 266-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 105 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Evan Tanner started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Phil Baroni is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Phil Baroni |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 085 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.