October 21, 2004
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Evan Tanner's 4-fight experience advantage (11 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Evan Tanner for the expected result. Had Robbie Lawler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 120 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:22 | 2:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 329 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Evan Tanner earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 17 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 184 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Evan Tanner slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 35.3% vs 21.4% accuracy. Evan Tanner capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 304 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Evan Tanner edged out Robbie Lawler on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 125 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 225 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -15 |
Evan Tanner demonstrated solid activity levels with 125 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Evan Tanner capitalized on this activity level, while Robbie Lawler's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 145 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -16 |
Evan Tanner extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Robbie Lawler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Evan Tanner | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 118 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

