Evan Tanner vs Robbie Lawler

October 21, 2004

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1192
(+23)
Evan Tanner
Winner: Evan Tanner
Submission
Round 1 • 2:22

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Evan Tanner+23
Robbie Lawler-19
1031
(-19)
Robbie Lawler

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +26Robbie Lawler: -26

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Total UFC Fights117
Experience Gap4-4
Experience ELO1 110998
ELO Change+26-26
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What Happened

Evan Tanner's 4-fight experience advantage (11 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Evan Tanner for the expected result. Had Robbie Lawler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +16Robbie Lawler: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1201 010
ELO Change+16-16
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +33Robbie Lawler: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:222:22
Win Type ELO1 3291 059
ELO Change+33-19
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What Happened

Evan Tanner earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +23Robbie Lawler: -23

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Significant Strikes Landed63
Significant Strikes Attempted1714
Total Strikes Landed64
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1841 004
ELO Change+23-23
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What Happened

Evan Tanner slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 35.3% vs 21.4% accuracy. Evan Tanner capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +21Robbie Lawler: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted01
Ground Control Time0:000:33
Ground Strikes Landed01
Ground ELO1 3041 069
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

Evan Tanner edged out Robbie Lawler on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +30Robbie Lawler: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Days Since Last Fight125203
Activity ELO1 2251 080
ELO Change+30-15
💡

What Happened

Evan Tanner demonstrated solid activity levels with 125 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Evan Tanner capitalized on this activity level, while Robbie Lawler's 203-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +21Robbie Lawler: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Win Streak30
Win Streak ELO1 1451 021
ELO Change+21-16
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What Happened

Evan Tanner extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Robbie Lawler is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Evan Tanner: +17Robbie Lawler: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricEvan TannerRobbie Lawler
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1181 009
ELO Change+17-17
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.