March 22, 2014
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 060 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Fabio Maldonado's 4-fight experience advantage (7 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fabio Maldonado for the expected result. Had Gian Villante pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 025 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 106 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Fabio Maldonado earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 132 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 217 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 150 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 093 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Fabio Maldonado dominated the striking exchanges with 150 vs 46 total strikes, 132 vs 33 significant strikes, 60.8% vs 35.9% accuracy. Fabio Maldonado capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 5:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 973 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Fabio Maldonado did not secure a significant ground advantage against Gian Villante on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:21 of control time, 1 ground strike, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 166 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 071 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -19 |
Fabio Maldonado demonstrated solid activity levels with 166 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Fabio Maldonado capitalized on this activity level, while Gian Villante's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 040 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -20 |
Fabio Maldonado extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gian Villante is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Gian Villante |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 025 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.