June 3, 2011
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 028 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Kyle Kingsbury's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kyle Kingsbury for the expected result. Had Fabio Maldonado pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 057 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Kyle Kingsbury earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 78 | 95 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 144 | 191 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 122 | 110 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 069 | 1 187 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Kyle Kingsbury controlled the striking exchanges with 95 vs 78 significant strikes. Kyle Kingsbury capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 14 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:34 | 2:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 996 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Kyle Kingsbury controlled Fabio Maldonado on the ground with 5 vs 2 takedowns, 2:37 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 1 003 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +46 |
Kyle Kingsbury demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kyle Kingsbury capitalized on this activity level, while Fabio Maldonado's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +27 |
Kyle Kingsbury extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fabio Maldonado is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Kyle Kingsbury |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

