May 17, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 005 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Fabio Maldonado's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fabio Maldonado for the expected result. Had Roger Hollett pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 985 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 053 | 946 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Fabio Maldonado earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 100 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 151 | 44 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 156 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 895 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Fabio Maldonado dominated the striking exchanges with 156 vs 32 total strikes, 100 vs 29 significant strikes. Fabio Maldonado capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:18 | 4:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 928 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Fabio Maldonado edged out Roger Hollett on the ground with 1 takedown, 3:18 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 217 | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 996 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -22 |
Fabio Maldonado demonstrated standard activity with 217 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Fabio Maldonado capitalized on this activity level, while Roger Hollett's 238-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 990 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Fabio Maldonado started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roger Hollett is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabio Maldonado | Roger Hollett |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 985 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.