December 27, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -11 | 11 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Jim Miller's 11-fight experience advantage (16 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Fabricio Camoes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 975 | 1 149 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:42 | 3:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 029 | 1 396 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +17 |
Jim Miller earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:42, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 6 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 997 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Fabricio Camoes controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (11 vs 6), superior accuracy (47.8% vs 24.0%). However, since Fabricio Camoes lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jim Miller's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:18 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 943 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Jim Miller controlled Fabricio Camoes on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 540 | 246 |
| Activity ELO | 995 | 1 342 |
| ELO Change | -5 | +7 |
Jim Miller demonstrated standard activity with 246 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Fabricio Camoes's 540-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 217 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +10 |
Jim Miller started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fabricio Camoes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 975 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.