March 26, 2010
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 978 | 1 126 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Kurt Pellegrino's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kurt Pellegrino for the expected result. Had Fabricio Camoes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:20 | 4:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 988 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +26 |
Kurt Pellegrino earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:20, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Fabricio Camoes was submitted.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 19 | 71 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 974 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Kurt Pellegrino dominated the striking exchanges with 71 vs 19 total strikes, 16 vs 8 significant strikes, 55.2% vs 72.7% accuracy. Kurt Pellegrino capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:40 | 6:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 14 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Kurt Pellegrino dominated Fabricio Camoes on the ground with 1 takedown, 6:47 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 991 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +15 |
Kurt Pellegrino demonstrated standard activity with 232 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Kurt Pellegrino capitalized on this activity level, while Fabricio Camoes's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 109 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +22 |
Kurt Pellegrino extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fabricio Camoes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Kurt Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.