July 6, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -13 | 13 |
| Experience ELO | 989 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Melvin Guillard's 13-fight experience advantage (17 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Melvin Guillard for the expected result. Had Fabricio Camoes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 988 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 039 | 1 277 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Melvin Guillard earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 101 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 57 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 005 | 1 418 |
| ELO Change | -7 | +7 |
Melvin Guillard controlled the striking exchanges with 57 vs 33 total strikes, 37 vs 18 significant strikes, 36.6% vs 24.3% accuracy. Melvin Guillard capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 11 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:06 | 1:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 970 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Melvin Guillard controlled Fabricio Camoes on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:23 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 000 | 1 222 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +18 |
Melvin Guillard demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Melvin Guillard capitalized on this activity level, while Fabricio Camoes's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 993 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +16 |
Melvin Guillard started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fabricio Camoes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Melvin Guillard |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 988 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.