January 19, 2012
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 011 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Fabricio Camoes's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fabricio Camoes for the expected result. Had Tommy Hayden pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:03 | 4:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 060 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -43 |
Fabricio Camoes earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:03, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 012 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Fabricio Camoes edged the striking exchanges with 46.2% vs 33.3% accuracy. Fabricio Camoes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:07 | 1:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 020 | 921 |
| ELO Change | +79 | -79 |
Fabricio Camoes controlled Tommy Hayden on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:07 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 664 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 010 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -22 |
Fabricio Camoes demonstrated extended layoff with 664 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Fabricio Camoes capitalized on this activity level, while Tommy Hayden's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 008 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Fabricio Camoes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tommy Hayden is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Camoes | Tommy Hayden |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.