January 18, 2008
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -44 |
Fabricio Werdum overcame a 4-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Gabriel Gonzaga.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 012 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:34 | 4:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 131 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | +138 | -67 |
Fabricio Werdum gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 117 | 1 131 |
| ELO Change | +127 | -127 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 26 total strikes, 46 vs 19 significant strikes. Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:49 | 2:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 22 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 048 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | +81 | -81 |
Fabricio Werdum edged out Gabriel Gonzaga on the ground with 0 takedowns, 2:49 of control time, 22 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 274 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 1 016 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Fabricio Werdum demonstrated standard activity with 274 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this activity level, while Gabriel Gonzaga's 148-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 016 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -27 |
Fabricio Werdum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gabriel Gonzaga is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Gabriel Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 010 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.