November 17, 2017
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 268 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Fabricio Werdum's 10-fight experience advantage (15 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fabricio Werdum for the expected result. Had Marcin Tybura pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 209 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 606 | 1 206 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Fabricio Werdum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 155 | 127 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 265 | 257 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 179 | 137 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 485 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled the striking exchanges with 179 vs 137 total strikes, 155 vs 127 significant strikes, 58.5% vs 49.4% accuracy. Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:01 | 0:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 400 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Fabricio Werdum edged out Marcin Tybura on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:01 of control time, 3 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 43 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 327 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -14 |
Fabricio Werdum demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 43 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this activity level, while Marcin Tybura's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 234 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -12 |
Fabricio Werdum extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcin Tybura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 149 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.