February 3, 2012
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -38 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 036 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 242 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Fabricio Werdum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 91 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 136 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 116 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled the striking exchanges with 98 vs 55 total strikes, 91 vs 26 significant strikes, 66.9% vs 37.7% accuracy. Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:04 | 2:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 071 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Fabricio Werdum did not secure a significant ground advantage against Roy Nelson on the ground with 1:04 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 1 198 | 99 |
| Activity ELO | 1 068 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -24 |
Fabricio Werdum demonstrated extended layoff with 1198 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 046 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Fabricio Werdum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roy Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 033 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.