October 6, 2017
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 247 | 998 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Fabricio Werdum's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fabricio Werdum for the expected result. Had Walt Harris pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 196 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:05 | 1:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 598 | 1 165 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -7 |
Fabricio Werdum earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 476 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 0 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:31 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 381 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Fabricio Werdum controlled Walt Harris on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:31 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 258 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -10 |
Fabricio Werdum demonstrated solid activity levels with 91 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Fabricio Werdum capitalized on this activity level, while Walt Harris's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 219 | 991 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -10 |
Fabricio Werdum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Walt Harris is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fabricio Werdum | Walt Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 133 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.