November 20, 2003
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 075 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Matt Lindland's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Lindland for the expected result. Had Falaniko Vitale pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 009 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:23 | 4:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 123 | 1 261 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +79 |
Matt Lindland gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 62 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 93 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 022 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Matt Lindland dominated the striking exchanges with 93 vs 10 total strikes, 35 vs 3 significant strikes, 56.5% vs 16.7% accuracy. Matt Lindland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:19 | 8:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 1 031 | 1 234 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Matt Lindland controlled Falaniko Vitale on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 8:17 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 017 | 1 175 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +25 |
Matt Lindland demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Lindland capitalized on this activity level, while Falaniko Vitale's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 014 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +19 |
Matt Lindland started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Falaniko Vitale is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Falaniko Vitale | Matt Lindland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 009 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.