February 1, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 174 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Fares Ziam's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fares Ziam for the expected result. Had Mike Davis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 103 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 270 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Fares Ziam earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 35 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 58 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 309 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Fares Ziam controlled the striking exchanges with 58 vs 30 total strikes, 35 vs 20 significant strikes. Fares Ziam capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 7 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:11 | 3:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 10 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 220 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Fares Ziam controlled Mike Davis on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 7:11 of control time, 10 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 323 |
| Activity ELO | 1 150 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -19 |
Fares Ziam demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Fares Ziam capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Davis's 323-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 150 | 1 065 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -19 |
Fares Ziam continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Mike Davis's now at 0.
| Metric | Fares Ziam | Mike Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 103 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.