June 3, 2022
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 995 | 1 013 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +37 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the expected result. Had Felice Herrig pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 987 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:01 | 4:01 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 001 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +91 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:01, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Felice Herrig was submitted.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 55 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 123 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 102 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 934 | 968 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz controlled the striking exchanges with 102 vs 59 total strikes, 82 vs 55 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 45.1% accuracy. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 3:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 812 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -141 | +141 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz dominated Felice Herrig on the ground with 3:10 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 658 | 301 |
| Activity ELO | 1 034 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Felice Herrig's 658-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 005 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +26 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Felice Herrig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Felice Herrig | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 986 | 989 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

