Felice Herrig vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

June 3, 2022

Women's Strawweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

969
(-46)
Felice Herrig
Winner: Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Submission
Round 2 • 4:01

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Felice Herrig-46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz+50
1009
(+50)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -37Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +37

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Total UFC Fights1013
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO9951 013
ELO Change-37+37
💡

What Happened

Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the expected result. Had Felice Herrig pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -23Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +23

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO987994
ELO Change-23+23
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -59Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +91

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish4:014:01
Win Type ELO1 0011 002
ELO Change-59+91
💡

What Happened

Karolina Kowalkiewicz earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:01, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Felice Herrig was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -38Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +38

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Significant Strikes Landed5582
Significant Strikes Attempted122123
Total Strikes Landed59102
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO934968
ELO Change-38+38
💡

What Happened

Karolina Kowalkiewicz controlled the striking exchanges with 102 vs 59 total strikes, 82 vs 55 significant strikes, 66.7% vs 45.1% accuracy. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -141Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +141

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted22
Ground Control Time0:013:10
Ground Strikes Landed08
Ground ELO8121 025
ELO Change-141+141
💡

What Happened

Karolina Kowalkiewicz dominated Felice Herrig on the ground with 3:10 of control time, 8 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -21Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Days Since Last Fight658301
Activity ELO1 0341 069
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated standard activity with 301 days since her last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Felice Herrig's 658-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -24Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0051 011
ELO Change-24+26
💡

What Happened

Karolina Kowalkiewicz started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Felice Herrig is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Felice Herrig: -24Karolina Kowalkiewicz: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricFelice HerrigKarolina Kowalkiewicz
Weight ClassWomen's StrawweightWomen's Strawweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO986989
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.