January 12, 2024
Flyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 976 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Joshua Van's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joshua Van for the expected result. Had Felipe Bunes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:31 | 4:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 964 | 1 124 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +74 |
Joshua Van gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 50 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 91 | 141 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 57 | 154 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 912 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -88 | +88 |
Joshua Van dominated the striking exchanges with 154 vs 57 total strikes, 83 vs 50 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Joshua Van capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:02 | 1:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 971 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Joshua Van landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +53 |
Joshua Van demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Joshua Van capitalized on this activity level, while Felipe Bunes's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 982 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +24 |
Joshua Van extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Felipe Bunes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Felipe Bunes | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

