Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson

September 15, 2023

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1028
(-31)
Fernando Padilla
Winner: Kyle Nelson
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Fernando Padilla-31
Kyle Nelson+35
1020
(+35)
Kyle Nelson

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -39Kyle Nelson: +39

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Total UFC Fights28
Experience Gap-66
Experience ELO1 0521 047
ELO Change-39+39
💡

What Happened

Kyle Nelson's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kyle Nelson for the expected result. Had Fernando Padilla pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -24Kyle Nelson: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO998999
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -51Kyle Nelson: +51

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 0871 110
ELO Change-51+51
💡

What Happened

Kyle Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -33Kyle Nelson: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Significant Strikes Landed7282
Significant Strikes Attempted208184
Total Strikes Landed7383
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 043981
ELO Change-33+33
💡

What Happened

Kyle Nelson edged the striking exchanges with 82 vs 72 significant strikes, 44.6% vs 34.6% accuracy. Kyle Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -31Kyle Nelson: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted13
Ground Control Time0:070:00
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 039931
ELO Change-31+31
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -21Kyle Nelson: +52

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Days Since Last Fight14098
Activity ELO1 0061 080
ELO Change-21+52
💡

What Happened

Kyle Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kyle Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Fernando Padilla's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -24Kyle Nelson: +28

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO1 0021 011
ELO Change-24+28
💡

What Happened

Kyle Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fernando Padilla is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: -24Kyle Nelson: +24

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaKyle Nelson
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO998999
ELO Change-24+24
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.