September 15, 2023
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 052 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Kyle Nelson's 6-fight experience advantage (8 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kyle Nelson for the expected result. Had Fernando Padilla pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 087 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Kyle Nelson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 208 | 184 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 73 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 043 | 981 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Kyle Nelson edged the striking exchanges with 82 vs 72 significant strikes, 44.6% vs 34.6% accuracy. Kyle Nelson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 039 | 931 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +52 |
Kyle Nelson demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Kyle Nelson capitalized on this activity level, while Fernando Padilla's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +28 |
Kyle Nelson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fernando Padilla is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 999 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

