Fernando Padilla vs Luis Pajuelo

March 22, 2024

Featherweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1073
(+45)
Fernando Padilla
Winner: Fernando Padilla
Submission
Round 1 • 2:45

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Fernando Padilla+45
Luis Pajuelo-41
959
(-41)
Luis Pajuelo

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +27Luis Pajuelo: -27

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Total UFC Fights31
Experience Gap2-2
Experience ELO1 079973
ELO Change+27-27
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What Happened

Fernando Padilla's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fernando Padilla for the expected result. Had Luis Pajuelo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +21Luis Pajuelo: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 019979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +55Luis Pajuelo: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:452:45
Win Type ELO1 142968
ELO Change+55-32
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What Happened

Fernando Padilla earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +88Luis Pajuelo: -88

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Significant Strikes Landed345
Significant Strikes Attempted6113
Total Strikes Landed357
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 131912
ELO Change+88-88
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What Happened

Fernando Padilla controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 7 total strikes, 34 vs 5 significant strikes, 55.7% vs 38.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Fernando Padilla capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +96Luis Pajuelo: -96

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:470:00
Ground Strikes Landed170
Ground ELO1 135904
ELO Change+96-96
💡

What Happened

Fernando Padilla dominated Luis Pajuelo on the ground with 0:47 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +26Luis Pajuelo: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Days Since Last Fight190N/A
Activity ELO1 032979
ELO Change+26-21
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What Happened

Fernando Padilla demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Fernando Padilla capitalized on this activity level, while Luis Pajuelo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +23Luis Pajuelo: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 025979
ELO Change+23-21
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What Happened

Fernando Padilla started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luis Pajuelo is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Fernando Padilla: +21Luis Pajuelo: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricFernando PadillaLuis Pajuelo
Weight ClassFeatherweightFeatherweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 019979
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.