March 22, 2024
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Fernando Padilla's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Fernando Padilla for the expected result. Had Luis Pajuelo pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:45 | 2:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 142 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -32 |
Fernando Padilla earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 35 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 131 | 912 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -88 |
Fernando Padilla controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 7 total strikes, 34 vs 5 significant strikes, 55.7% vs 38.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Fernando Padilla capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 17 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 904 |
| ELO Change | +96 | -96 |
Fernando Padilla dominated Luis Pajuelo on the ground with 0:47 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 032 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Fernando Padilla demonstrated standard activity with 190 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Fernando Padilla capitalized on this activity level, while Luis Pajuelo's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 025 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Fernando Padilla started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Luis Pajuelo is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fernando Padilla | Luis Pajuelo |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 019 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

