May 6, 2022
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 965 | 993 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Journey Newson's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Journey Newson for the expected result. Had Fernie Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 977 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 950 | 985 |
| ELO Change | -50 | +50 |
Journey Newson earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 57 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 103 | 143 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 38 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 955 | 927 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Journey Newson controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 38 total strikes, 57 vs 37 significant strikes. Journey Newson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 915 | 986 |
| ELO Change | -85 | +85 |
Journey Newson controlled Fernie Garcia on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:42 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 595 |
| Activity ELO | 977 | 983 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +21 |
Journey Newson demonstrated extended layoff with 595 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Journey Newson capitalized on this activity level, while Fernie Garcia's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 977 | 988 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +26 |
Journey Newson started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Fernie Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Fernie Garcia | Journey Newson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 977 | 984 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.